Τρίτη, 3 Ιουνίου 2014

Save DONBass not EU

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[Vice-minister Karasin was on May 6 in Doha and met the Qatari leadership, with  shocking results! According to messages from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs,the Qatar emir declared that he "appreciates the convincing and consistent regional policy of the Russian Federation" which was quite unexpected from this country,which I'd simply dismiss as an ally of the USA, the political branch of Exxon Mobil in the Middle East,  and as being 100%  in opposition to the Russian Federation,   particularly it's policies in in Syria. 

But business interests triumph, and American dreams to fill in the whole world with cheap gas are for Qatar and its elite the death sentence. Without ultrahigh gas prices, Qatar not only loses hope for regional greatness, it becomes a corpse. Culminating with: "at the same time, the emphasis was placed on acceleration of coordination within Foruma Stran-Exporterov Gaza (GECF)", whose next summit (surprise! )  will take place in Qatar. 

Stran-Exporterov Gaza is the organization which includes such countries as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia plus other exporters, which the Kremlin has been trying to get off the ground for a very long time as a gas analog of OPEC. It appears that the hour of triumph for potential gas cartel is now. For the first time, the three main exporters of gas: Russia, Qatar, and Iran, have very similar interests and can quite work together to unite  and "to take by the balls" both the LNG market and the market of pipe gas. 

Such a gas cartel, even in the truncated format of the Russian Federation, Qatar, and Iran, will control at least 55% of world gas reserves and have serious clout over the energy markets of EU and Asia. Certainly, such project will have many problems, it will meet counteraction, nobody gives guarantees that everything will turn out, but it is important to see that Moscow actively looks for opportunities to get additional strategic benefits in fight against the USA.
This is why Russia is being discrete
I hope, now it is clear what the Kremlin is concerning itself with while it tries to win in Ukraine and why these issues are important. Returning to the issue of Ukraine itself, implementation of all important foreign policy projects won't help to carry out denazification of Kiev and to make certain that the Russian armies or Novorossiya's insurgent army would be received with open arms, at least in the central regions.  Current problems mobilizing Novorossiya's army in Lugansk and Donetsk, are minor compared to those to be expected in mobilizing with the rest of Novorossiya.  However, the Russian Federation will soon field, Colonel Famine, and special force, Giperok ("Hyperinflation"), which will sharply change balance of forces. 

The Ukrainian economy is finished. 
Considering the failure of spring sowing of essential grains, destroyed crops of vegetables (due to freezing), lack of credits, problems with gas, a doubling in prices of fuels and lubricants, one can safely declare that the arctic fox will scavenge the wreckage of the Ukrainian Economy and grow fat. Nobody will give money to junta and even the IMF which promised something about 17 billion dollars (exactly 50% of that that is necessary for Ukraine this year), "put loopholes" in it's contract: if Kiev doesn't control all regions, Kiev won't receive cent. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by a hryvnia collapse) will actively work for weakening of junta and for changing the minds of Ukrainians. They certainly won't love Russia, but that isn't necessary. What is necessary is that Yanukovych's period was remembered by Ukranians as a sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable chaos and full distruction of social structures, together with slow civil war guarantees that NATO won't take Ukraine because Europe "will lay down the law" and in the USA more or less moderate politicians won't allow Obama to take a step which guarantees a USA policy failure, not to mention bringing the US and Russia to the brink of WWIII. Moreover, in the conditions of total economic crash, miners, steel workers, and their fellows now hanging onto their jobs with clenched fists for fear to lose them,and in hopes "to wait out the chaos", will finally realize the futility of doing so.  They must participate, one way or another, in the solution of political and economic problems of Novorossiya.  Most likely, by joining the army to fight for their rights. 

At the same time, the junta of Poroshenko, cajoled by the European Union, will have the strongest incentive to find common ground with Moscow, to make concessions, to offer compromises.  The European Commission, reconstituted following the recent EU wide elections, will push Poroshenko's in this direction, including a ceasefire in the east and stablized gas transit.  The social explosions caused by the colonel Golod and the saboteur Giperk, will add to a shift in the policies of the Kiev Putschists, headed by Poroshenko. All these factors, in toto, open for the Kremlin great opportunities for reformatting of the wreckage of Ukraine into something corresponding to the interests of the Russian Federation.  

The United States is trying to avoid this scenario and because of it they are doggedly rushing to shift the conflict to a hot phase with application of armies and large-scale bloodshed. IDuring the time necessary for Famine, and Hyperinflation to do their work, Russia is busy settling affairs with China,  and Iran, furiously disconnecting the Russian Economy from the dollar, initiating import substitution, etc: all of which should conclude in 5-9 months (about December which Yanukovych tried to get agreement on), providing solutions to the Ukrainian and other questions which are to the maximum advantage of Russia. 

For this period, it is necessary to provide at least preservation of Ukraine in a condition of civil war (i.e. DNR, LNR support, but there is no rush to take Kiev less Russia create for itself other problems), and ideally to combine civil war with tightened and glacially paced negotiations, with participation of international observers, something like a format 2+4, i.e. Poroshenko, Tsarov + the Russian Federation, EU, OSCE, & USA.

Finally, recently, the USA strongly reduced Quantitative Easing, "injection of money" from $ 85 billion,  to 55 billion dollars a month. Many anticipate (for example http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA3Q08920140427) that this program will be terminated by the end of this year. Again the December timeframe. Though the US dollar is the main international currency, it is impossible to print it infinitely. By different estimates, America almost completely exhausted "the dollar's durability" which enabled it to manipulate the world financial system. Moreover, this caused nearly zero interest rates on the American bonds which, helps Washington to pay less on it's debt at the expense ofl American pension funds and insurance companies,which are constructed on the expectation of 8% returns on their portfolios of bonds. 

Roughly speaking, by the end of the year the USA will have to choose between blowing up it's social system by printing further, and strongly reducing fund flows into money center banks, if it is to have any chance of stabilization at home.  Judging by the decrease in quantity of dollars thrown at the banks, Washington decided that explosion prevention of itself - is more important than foreign policy ambitions.
Perhaps there were no willing suppliers for the ammo and machine guns ordered by the USDA??? 

Now, the  forecast: 
-  America will try to aggravate in every way crisis in Ukraine to weaken the Russian Federation and to put under itself all European market before it is necessary to switch off the press. 

-  The Kremlin will try to transfer crisis in Ukraine from a sharp phase to the chronic - civil war plus slow negotiations against economic collapse of Ukraine.  At the same time, the Kremlin will use time to create the most comfortable conditions for transition to a phase of sharp opposition with the USA - untying from dollar, work with China, Iran, Qatar, EurAsEC creation etc. 

-  The full end of crisis by December 2014, is possible, earlier if the USA stops aggravation attempts. 

-  And if doesn't stop? 

-  Then...  war...  big resource war since shale "boom" was ordinary ponzi scheme. 

On this subject in detail see William Engdal's article "The Washington shale boom – bankrupt". 
To close,  the original of Washington's Shale Boom Going Bust was in:  http://journal-neo.org/2014/05/12/washington-s-shale-boom-going-bust/  ."  The Shale Oil Production in the USA is expected to peak in 2016, possibly next year, depending upon the amount of wells drilled between now and then.For more on Shale Oil Dynamics, look up "Drill Baby Drill" by Nick Turse  and  download it.


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